Eisenkot bloc leads 56-50 in final poll

Voters in New Castle County may not see this election directly, but the outcome will shape security policy in the region for years. In Israel, polling stations opened at 7:00 a.m. on Tuesday, October 27, marking the first general election since the Hamas attack of October 7, 2023.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu faces his toughest race in years. He has led the country for 19 non-consecutive years and is now battling to keep his seat. The opposition bloc, led by Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party, has overtaken Likud in most recent polls. According to a final Channel 12 poll released on Friday, the opposition projects 56 seats, while Netanyahu’s coalition holds 50.

No bloc has a guaranteed path to the 61 seats needed for a majority. Arab parties are projected to win a combined 16 seats. Most opposition leaders have pledged not to govern with those parties, citing the events of 2023. This leaves both sides short of a clear mandate without unexpected shifts on election day.

The Yashar party is the biggest gainer in the projections. Eisenkot’s group is expected to win 22 seats, more than any other party. In contrast, Netanyahu’s Likud is projected to drop from its current 32 seats to just 19. Former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett’s B’Yachad party is projected to secure 14 seats, placing it third in the opposition bloc.

The issues driving voter choice have changed since the 2022 vote. The central debates now focus on the Israel Defense Forces’ severe manpower crisis after three years of war. Controversy also surrounds legislation to conscript haredi ultra-Orthodox men and calls for a state commission of inquiry into the government’s failures before the attack. Traditional debates over a Palestinian state have moved to the background as most parties now agree against statehood.

Small parties will decide who forms the next government. The electoral threshold is set at 3.25% of valid votes. At a 70% turnout rate, similar to 2022, a party needs 165,635 votes to enter the Knesset. Ofer Winter’s People of Israel party and Yoaz Hendel’s Reservists-Economics party are fighting for those seats. Their success could give either bloc the leverage to form a coalition.

Police have deployed approximately 20,000 officers and volunteers across the country. They are stationed at thousands of polling stations to maintain order. Authorities expect potential clashes in the hours after exit polls release at 10:00 p.m. Official results will be finalized in the coming days after the full vote count is completed.